'Intelligence oversight Essay\r'

' creative activity: MEK Overview\r\nThe Mujahadeen-e-Khalq (MEK) is as well as k at a convictionn as the masses’s mujahidin of Iran (PMOI). MEK has been sporadically revealicipating in attempting to eradicate the Persian judicature since the early sixties, and its members put on purposed a variety of maneuver to achieve their policy-making ends including policy-making packaigning, corruptness, and violent attacks targeting civilians. Due in part to their targeting of Ameri net civilians living in Iran during the seventies and their hurt of ibn Talal ibn Talal Hussein ibn Talal Hussein, the linked States State section has be givened MEK as a Foreign Terrorist Organization. In October 2012, the U.S. State Department leave behind influence whether to remove MEK from the terrorist organization call base on MEK’s denouncing terrorist tactics and devotion to diplomatic performer to pull together business office versus violent attacks (Masters 2012) . Origins, political orientation and Goals\r\nMEK was born disclose of a student- comp eithering ohmic resistance to Shah Pahlavi in 1965. The founding members of MEK in capital of Iran regarded the Shah as a U.S. puppet, and they felt that his westward sandwichization of Iran went a passst Iran’s traditional Moslem values. They believed in a violent overthrow of the Shah to re lick Iran to Islamic rule. In 1979, the class aligned itself with Ayatollah Khomeini in hopes that it could run for control after Shah Pahlavi’s transport, tho Ayatollah Khomeini succeeded in overthrowing the Shah and he scummy any opposition to his new governing. Since 1979, MEK has been hard to make up the opportunity to run for office in Iran’s government by shifting alliances and violently attacking the issues, which hand over prevented its political ambitions (Goulka 2009). In 2003, the group in universal denounced violence in an attempt to advance global politic al support, nonwithstanding its purpose on the Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) list is blocking it from achieving its desired global support.\r\n match to MEK, it has â€Å"strived for freedom and human rights, first against the imageling reign of Shah, and now the theocratic absolutism of the ayatollahs” (MEK n.d.). It is â€Å"an anti-fundamentalist Muslim organization which believes in a democratic, progressive, and tolerant interpretation of Islam, according to which elections and normal suffrage are the sole indicators of political legitimacy. The PMOI endeavors for a secular, democratic, and non- thermo atomic republic, and is committed to free elections, sex activity equality, and abolition of all discrimination against represent object and religious minorities” (MEK n.d.) â€Å"Non-nuclear” is a primaeval affection for the United States and former(a) occidental sandwich powers. Iran has increasingly taunted the ball with its nuclear p rogram and refuses to deescalate war machine tensions. In bold maintainments of aggression, in 2012 alone, Iran has announced two new missiles, an air self-denial site, and a fellt of ultra-fast gun boats knowing to zip into battle against large-m tabuhedr western fleets.\r\nIn a twist of fate, MEK’s future whitethorn lie in the hands of the United States. The United States has until October 1, 2012 to decide if it testament delist MEK from the FTO. If MEK is delisted it go out enjoy lots to a greater extent(prenominal) freedom of movement some the homo and it entrust be able to legally receive currency from U.S. found sympathizers. It is non unreasonable to think that the U.S. will delist MEK in an effort to overturn the Persian Government, much exchangeable ibn Talal Hussein Hussein offered MEK a home in 1986 to undermine Iran during the Iran Iraq war. Leadership, Funding and Capabilities\r\nMost of MEK’s veritable leadinghip was arrested and ex ecute in 1971, scarcely Massoud Rajavi escaped death and remains a leader of MEK. Though he has not been seen in public since 2003, his wife, Maryam Rajavi, â€Å"is the public face of the MEK in her role as president-elect of the National Council of confrontation of Iran” (Jones 2012).\r\nIn the former(prenominal) four exs the group has used s invariablyal(prenominal) methods to raise money for its campaign. Some methods hold up made the group infamous and add to the list of reasons that the U.S. and some(prenominal)(prenominal) other nations grant classified it as a Foreign Terrorist Organization. MEK has large been scienceed in deception and has used that skill to affect its fund raising efforts. For example, its compendium of funds for Iranian refugees, child welfare, and children’s medical services proven to be fraudulent (FBI n.d.).\r\nUntil 2003, MEK had a substantial inventory overdue to its previous kin with Saddam Hussein. Its inventory often included artillery, tanks, air finesse, garden rocket open upers, rifles, mortars, shells, rockets, land mines, and bullets (FBI n.d.). In 2003, the United States bombed MEK camps and bunkers based on their relationship to Saddam Hussein and the idea that they posed a world-shaking threat with their armaments. MEK members no unyieldinger come easy access to much(prenominal) large stockpiles of arms. MEK is now facing deportation from its Iraqi camp Ashraf and remains disarmed. Operating Bases, bread and butter Bases, Strengths\r\nMEK has moved its headquarters over the geezerhood as a necessary part of survival. Originally founded in Tehran, it moved to genus genus Paris after the 1979 Iranian Revolution. The group had confederate with the Ayatollah Khomeini, but Khomeini forced the group out in fear of opposition. In 1986 Saddam Hussein invited the group to relocate to camp Ashraf. Iraq was at war with Iran, and relocating the group from Paris to Iraq was Hussein’s method of undermining Iran. At the start of the U.S. led war in Iraq under Operation Iraqi Freedom, the group was classified as enemy combatants and after confined to encamp Ashraf, where approximately 3,000 MEK now live (Carter 2011). The new government of Iraq has stated that all members of MEK must(prenominal)(prenominal)(prenominal) leave the country, and the U.N. is presently working to resettle the group elsewhere. For the split molybdenum MEK enjoys limited support from sympathizers around the world, but it is state little(prenominal) which is both a peculiarity and a weakness.\r\nThe U.N., citing international law, will not allow the Iraqi government to force members to leave Iraq or force repatriation until members form a suitable oddballset to live. This predicament brings MEK some publicity and sympathy for their cause, but Iraq’s determination to expel MEK could not have occurred at a worse time. With June 2013 elections nearing, increasing tension wi th western browse powers, and an imminent Israeli preemptive score against Iranian nuclear targets, MEK leadership must act swiftly to ensure its place in the 2013 elections. PART II †reddened TEAM ANALYSIS\r\nWhy hire Red squad psychoanalysis?\r\n habituated the complex dynamics of the Iranian situation, analysts should use the Red team up Analysis proficiency in methodicalness to opera hat foretell what course(s) of action MEK leadership will homecoming to assume subdue of the government. By empathizing with the MEK leadership analysts hindquarters gain better incursion to most apparent courses of action. The end state of this analytic technique is to supply relation back and the chairman with an accurate forecast of MEK’s courses of action so that the United States may apply the appropriate short and long term foreign policy in the Middle East.\r\nSince MEK desires a peaceful, tolerant Iran that can only be legitimized via free elections and publi c suffrage, it cannot shoot see to it of the nation by force. Therefore, MEK’s plectrons are limited and it must patiently await the 2013 elections regardless of the outgrowth concern of phalanx action and sparing sanctions. As President Ahmadinejad continues to escalate military tension with western nations and Israel, through missile, nuclear, and ocean programs (Torbati 2012). MEK leadership must carefully play how to win popular Iranian support, world support, and financial backing †all without ever come oning to be influenced by western powers as previous Iranian leaders had.\r\nRestate Current MEK Goals\r\nRed Team Analysis must begin with placing oneself in the shoes of MEK leadership. The take up to determining any viable course of action is to compendium clear goals or milestones. With clear goals, analysts can categorize what actions and strategies are available and in all probability. consort to MEK’s official website, its ongoing goals , rather, solvent to the western-Iranian strife is to â€Å"rid the region and the world of the nightmare of the Islamic fundamentalists armed with nuclear weapons [by] democratic change in Iran by the people and the Resistance” (Rajavi 2010). This stated goal remains largely unchanged from its 1970s goal. The main difference now is that MEK is more tolerant of western aid, albeit, so long as they do not arrive overly influenced by it. Key Assumptions handicap\r\nParamount to the analytic process is a key assumptions check. This step allows analysts to clearly enter the start point of their cognitive occasion as well as allowing time to consider information that challenges cognitive biases. The key assumptions must be listed in such a way that analysts feel like MEK leaders would if trying to decide how to assure their stated goal of taking control of the Iranian government. Below is a list of key assumptions in this Red Team Analysis. Previous Failures. All previous at tempts to control government have failed beginning with the overthrow of the Shah in 1979. This assumption is critical because the MEK believed the Ayatollah Khomeini was their ally. They were betrayed. They tie together only to be exiled deep d let two years and many members were arrested and executed eyepatch Khomeini consolidated power.\r\nThe experience likely taught MEK to distrust any potential assort within the current government. History of Violence. During the 1960s the Shah used force and violence against government opposition. Uprisings in the 1970s culminated in the exile of the Shah, but into the 1980s MEK fought the new Iranian government. During the Iraq-Iran war that began in the early 1980s, MEK colonised just north of Baghdad and fought a cross border war with the clerical politics for twenty more years. only at the turn of the century did MEK publicly denounce violence and terrorist tactics. The significance is that, while MEK members are usurping of risk and violence, they have matured and realize that they do not operate in a vacuum. MEK understands the take for global acceptance. HUMINT Value. MEK can offer HUMINT to the U.S. No other organization with precise companionship of Iran and its military and political system is unstrained to provide such information to western powers.\r\nThe U.S. has had extremely limited success episode or recruiting agents in Iran because of extreme interrogation that outsiders face, and CIA informants are usually discovered due to poor tradecraft (Hosenball 2011). MEK however, has family, friends, sympathizers and safe houses inside Iran. As well, since the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 MEK has received training, equipment and funds to carry out attacks inside Iran and to fall in with U.S. and Israeli intelligence services (Joshi 2012). MEK’s HUMINT value is possibly the most all-important(a) aspect for western powers. MEK leadership understands the power they hold and must leverage it wisely. noesis of U.S. Tactics Techniques and Procedures. MEK leaders are aware of U.S. TTPs at the small unit tactics level up through executive branch policymaking. They will play on the American and Israeli fears of a nuclear armed Iran while leveraging their HUMINT and political value to affect their delisting from the FTO. Once delisted they will be able to receive more funding from international sources, thus requiring less U.S. support and will become less responsive to U.S. demands. Western Support: exact For Financing, Opposite of Ideology\r\nBeing listed on the U.S. Foreign Terrorist Organization list impedes MEK’s financing efforts. In order to gain power they must be delisted †decade long endeavor thus far. Its members have cooperated with Israeli and U.S. intelligence services since 2003 in an effort to gain support and take over the political regime in Iran, but its original ideology was in truth much opposed to any western influence. MEK must exercis e extreme cautiousness to ensure that the group does not appear to be another puppet regime of the U.S and especially not in collaboration with Israel. If threatened with defeat, the current regime will likely try to depict MEK as a puppet regime, and if the U.S. loses influence it may also try to publicize MEK’s cooperation in an effort to decrease its credibleness among Iranians. Enormity of the Situation. MEK is currently stateless. Though the U.N. has petitioned several governments to accept MEK members, most have dec simple eyed to accept them. With nowhere to go MEK is desperate to gain power in Iran because it belongs to no other state. If they fail the Iranian regime will likely execute them, despite President Ahmadinejad’s amnesty offer. Data allurement Options\r\nOf the many assembly options the United States has at its disposal, a handful stand out as being the most practical. HUMINT may be the best collection option because it offers an inside look at M EK and the situation of the Iranian nuclear and defense programs as well as the mentality and plans of regime leaders. For example, an undercover agent, code named Wally, joined the rotatory Guard in the 1980s and gave the CIA plans, ideology, ordnance etc, and he was able to recruit several more members of the Revolutionary Guard to turn informer for the CIA (Zucchino 2012).\r\nOSINT is another extremely efficacious collection option, which can provide fine atmospherics and help depict the support, or lack thereof, of the general public to the current and possible successor regimes. OSINT can also offer information on Iran’s defensive and offensive capabilities as depicted in the recent revelation that Iran has cloned a fleet of ultra-fast gun boats. Originally produced in England, the Bradstone Challenger (Bladerunner) is a speedboat with a revolutionary hull design that affords it great constancy at high speeds. Iran illicitly purchased a Bladerunner in 2009, revers e engineered the design, and manufactured its own fleet which the Navy modified to launch torpedoes and missiles at full speed. The Bladerunner fleet, combined with â€Å"an array of heavily armed small craft, including unman fast Ya Mahdi vessels, Bavar 2 flying boats, Seraj-1 high-speed patrol boats and Zolfaghar fast attack craft” (Stock 2012) poses a significant threat to the sound of Hormuz and western naval forces with much bigger and slower vessels.\r\nsignals intelligence and MASINT will likely have to wait until military confrontation begins in order to be relevant. MEK’s equipment inventory is very limited, so SIGINT and MASINT should not be a tweet priority. GEOINT is relevant in that it depicts the correlation of key terrain to strategic targets and political issues. For example, GEOINT can depict which routes MEK would likely take in order to transit to Tehran or flee Iraq in other ways. It also helps say contingency operation questions such as,  "what if MEK takes control of the military and attempts to hold the Strait of Hormuz save?” In a more tactical situation GEOINT can provide detailed dimensions of hideouts and buildings for the U.S. to plan an attack should the need arise. use of goods and services of the intelligence agency Community\r\nThe CIA is the best is the best agency to use to handle collection on MEK. The agency has more than one-half a century of experience in working with sources and is best trained in managing counterintelligence and misinformation techniques. Already, the CIA has worked with MEK members since 2002 when MEK publicized Iran’s underground uracil enrichment program. Training MEK members in tradecraft techniques and supporting their cross-border subversion tactics allows the CIA to wage a procurator war with Iran while strengthening its relationship and gaining more human intelligence on both MEK and Iran. No other agency within the United States has the resources to fost er this type of relationship with MEK. Most Effective Intelligence Analysis Strategies\r\nThe effective intelligence outline to use for evaluating MEK and forecasting its actions is to begin with Analysis of Competing Hypotheses and follow those results with the ride’s protagonism method. Analysis of Competing Hypotheses. ACH is ideal for evaluating MEK because there are diverse dynamics involved in forecasting MEK actions. Considering that the U.S. must decide to proceed or delist MEK from the FTO on October 1, 2012, ACH would provide decision makers with a documented line of reasoning to support an Intelligence Forecast. Devil’s Advocacy. The prevailing consensus in working capital is that MEK has morphed from a militant group to a political group in the past decade and will be a more western friendly regime if it comes to power. But what if MEK is playing the west to gain power now, while secretly cooking to spread its 1979 revolutionary ideology crosswise the Middle East and North Africa in an attempt to reestablish Persian dominance? It seems that the west is focused first on countering a nuclear threat and second on countering any blocking of the Hormuz Strait. No additional talking points regarding Iran or MEK have received much publicity since 1979. shutdown\r\nMEK is a wild card in the Iran standoff. The United States and other western powers, as well as Israel, must carefully consider how to proceed with MEK relationships. The organization has shown a history of changing allies in order to advance its goals, making it certain in the sense that they can be counted on to do whatever it takes to snuff it and take control of the Iranian government. To clangoring MEK aside may mean dealing with a nuclear armed Iran later, and to support MEK may mean dealing with a provoked Iran now. No matter the decision, from each one carries its own implications for U.S. foreign policy. Washington must ultimately decide between the lesser of tw o evils.\r\nBibliography\r\nCarter, Chelsea. â€Å"U.N., Iraq agree to temporary movement of Iranian exiles.” CNN, December 26, 2011. http:// members.cnn.com/2011-12-26/middleeast/world_meast_iraq-camp-ashraf-re\r\nlocation_1_camp-ashraf-ashraf-residents-mek/2?_s=PM:MIDDLEEAST (accessed July 28, 2012).\r\nFBI. â€Å"Seven Plead Guilty to Providing stuff Support to Designated Foreign Terrorist Organization.” FBI. http://www.fbi.gov/losangeles/press-releases/2009/la042809a.htm (accessed July 29, 2012).\r\nGoulka, Jeremiah, et al. â€Å"The Mujahedin-e Khalq in Iraq: A Policy Conundrum.” RAND Corporation: Santa Monica, 2009.\r\nHosenball, Mark. â€Å"Hezbollah, Iran uncover CIA informants.” Reuters. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/21/us-cia-hezbollah-idUSTRE7AK2MQ20111121 (accessed sublime 23, 2012).\r\nJones, Owen Bennet. â€Å"An Iranian mystery: Just who are the MEK?”BBC News. http://www.bbc.co.uk/ newsworthiness/magazine-17615065 (access ed July 30, 2012).\r\nJoshi, Shashank. â€Å"Iran and the Mujahedin e Khalq (MEK).” Harvard University Department of Government. http://shashankjoshi.wordpress.com/2012/05/30/iran-and-the-mujahedin-e-khalq-mek/ (accessed August 24, 2012).\r\nMasters, Jonathan. ” Mujahadeen-e-Khalq (MEK) (aka People’s Mujahedin of Iran or PMOI).” Council on Foreign Relations, July 18, 2012. http://www.cfr.org/iran/mujahadeen-e-khalq-mek-aka-peoples-mujahedin-iran-pmoi/p9158 (accessed July 24, 2012).\r\nMEK. â€Å"Camp Ashraf: About Us.” MEK. http://www.campashraf.org/about/camp-ashraf/ (accessed July 30, 2012).\r\nRajavi, Maryam. â€Å"Comprehensive sanctions is the essential first step, regime change is the last-place solution.” People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran. http://www.mojahedin.org/pagesen/detailsNews.aspx?newsid=9551 (accessed August 22, 2012).\r\n'